The NFL season is a third of the way done, and now is an excellent time to re-evaluate the Super Bowl contenders and the pretenders. The big game is less than four months away, and some teams have managed to put themselves in the title picture, while some are fading into the background. Three teams have emerged as the favorites, with odds +750 or shorter, while the rest of the pack stands on the outside looking in, at +1200 or longer. I will break down the three favorites, and a few long shots, letting you know the best Super Bowl predictions before Week 7 Sunday kicks off.
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Frontrunners:
Buffalo Bills +275
The Bills entered the season as the Super Bowl favorites, with a +500 price tag attached to their name. Sitting at 5-1, the Bills Super Bowl odds have shifted dramatically to +275. And the question remains, is there still value? I’d say no.
I’m not going to argue that the Bills are the top team in the NFL, because they are. However, placing a future down at +275 seems rash. The Bills are led by QB Josh Allen, who is running the No. 2-ranked offense, just behind the Chiefs. Allen is a mobile, accurate QB, who has proven he can win games in crunch time. If Isiah McKenzie gets out of bounds in Week 3, the Bills are sitting here undefeated.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills have the No. 1-ranked defense. The Bills made the moves necessary to support the offensive unit and are now primed for their first ever Super Bowl win.
From a pure predictions standpoint, yes, the Bills are the most likely team to make the Super Bowl. However, with a lot of football to be played, and the No. 1 seed very much still up for grabs, I can’t rationalize betting on any team at such a short price. Overall, it’s a pass from me.
Philadelphia Eagles +550
The surprise team of the NFL season has to be the Eagles. They entered the season with the 14th best Super Bowl odds at +2400, but they have seen them shrink all the way down to +550 on the back of a 6-0 start.
Being the only undefeated team left puts a target on the Eagles’ backs each and every game, but they have responded to the pressure well. Jalen Hurts is in his third season in the NFL and is steadily improving. He has led the Eagles to the fourth-best offense. And to go along with it, they have the sixth-best defense. The weapons delivered to Hurts is the reason there has been such an improvement to the 12th-ranked offense last season. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are both having career years, and the growth of RB Miles Sanders has been admirable.
Additionally, the way this team has played in crunch time gives me faith they can make another magical Super Bowl run, and I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is. Odds of +550 for a team that appears a shoe in for the NFC bye is great value.
The Eagles have shown us that they deserve their 6-0 record and the second best Super Bowl odds to go with it. They are certainly worth a bet at +550.
Kansas City Chiefs +750
The Chiefs are always dangerous, and this year is no different. As long as the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid remain in Kansas, the Chiefs will be perennial Super Bowl contenders. They entered the season at +1000 odds and have seen them shrink marginally.
There is no question that the Chiefs have the pieces to win, having made the Super Bowl twice in the last three seasons, including a 2019 win.
The question marks surrounding this team are on the other side of the ball. The Chiefs have the No. 1 offense, but it is hard to have faith in the 24th-ranked defense. Losing Tyrann Mathieu has made unwanted waves in the defense, but defense has been an issue for the Chiefs in the last few seasons, having never been in the Top 9.
The Chiefs have shown in the past they can outscore their defensive issues, and 2022 appears to be no different. Getting the Chiefs at +750 feels like a steal, and I feel they are worth some of your hard-earned cash to take down the 2023 Super Bowl. If the Bills or Eagles falter, these odds could quickly shrink in the coming weeks. Take +750 while you still can.
Outside teams to bet:
Baltimore Ravens +1800
There are lots of reasons to avoid betting on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, like the 20th-ranked defense with no signs of improvement, or outside of Mark Andrews, the receiving corps leaving a lot to be desired. However, there is one big reason to bet on this team: Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is the most exciting, versatile, and effective QBs in the league. The dual threat he poses with his active legs allows for the playbook to be wide open. If the defense can make a few effective tweaks, there is no reason the Ravens can’t go on a deep playoff run.
Jackson has his good games and his bad. However, if he can string together a few key wins and leave his playoff woes behind, +1800 will look like a steal.
Dallas Cowboys +2800
The Cowboys are… good? After losing star QB Dak Prescott in their Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers, the Cowboys season looked over before it began. Up steps Cooper Rush, who has managed to fill in admirably for Prescott, leading Dallas to a 4-2 record six weeks in.
The reason to bet on this team is not for the QB play, but rather the electric, always improving defensive unit. Second-year pass rusher Micah Parsons is the runaway front runner for defensive player of the year, and cornerback Trevon Diggs has bounced back nicely from last season.
As long as the defense continues to play as the third-ranked unit, the Cowboys will be in with a chance. Prescott is set to make his return in Week 7. And if all goes well, these odds could quickly shoot down to the +2000 range. Offense wins games, and defense wins championships, so jump on the +2800 Cowboys as soon as possible.
2023 Super Bowl odds
Buffalo Bills +275
Philadelphia Eagles +550
Kansas City Chiefs +750
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
San Francisco 49ers +1200
Minnesota Vikings +1600
LA Changers +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1800
Green Bay Packers +2000
LA Rams +2000
Cincinnati Bengals +2200
Dallas Cowboys +2800
Indianapolis Colts +4000
New York Giants +4000
Miami Dolphins +4000
Tennessee Titans +5000
New England Patriots +5000
Las Vegas Raiders +6600
Arizona cardinals +6600
Denver Broncos +7500
Cleveland Browns +8000
Jacksonville Jaguars +8000
New York Jets +8000
New Orleans Saints +12500
Atlanta Falcons +12500
Pittsburgh Steelers +15000
Seattle Seahawks +20000
Detroit Lions +25000
Washington Commanders +25000
Chicago Bears +50000
Carolina Panthers +75000
Houston Texans +75000
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