What countries are in the demographic transition model?

Demographic = to do with population
Transition = Change
Model = in Geography, a model is a simplified way of looking at the world to make it easier to understand.

The Demographic Transition Model is a simplified way of looking at how population is changing and has changed around the world. It focuses on birth rates, death rates and natural increase.

Definitions

Birth rate
This is the number of live births per years per thousand people. It is calculated by dividing the number of births in a country by the total population and then multiplying by 1000.

Death rate
This is the number of deaths per years per thousand people. It is calculated by dividing the number of deaths in a country by the total population and then multiplying by 1000.

Natural Increase/Decrease
This is the change in the total population of a country because of births and deaths (ie not including migration). If the birth rate is higher than the death rate then the population will increase. If the death rate is higher than the birth rate then the population will decrease.

It's a bit like the bathtub below...

What countries are in the demographic transition model?

Factors affecting birth rates

What countries are in the demographic transition model?

  1. Work with a partner to create your own version of the diagram on the left. 
  2. Try to add at least two additional factors that might influence the birth rate in a country.
  3. Choose any three of the factors and explain in your own words how it will influence the birth rate.

Factors affecting death rates

  1. Work with a partner to create your own version of the diagram on the right. 
  2. Try to add at least two additional factors that might influence the death rate in a country.
  3. Choose any three of the factors and explain in your own words how it will influence the death rate.

What countries are in the demographic transition model?

The Demographic Transition Model


​1) Use the video on the right to complete the following:

a) Write a definition of the Demographic Transition Model
b) Turn your page sideways and create a STAGED drawing of the DTM, adding descriptive labels as they appear on the video - you will need to 'pause' the video to give you time to do this.
c) Sub-heading - Limitations of the Model
At the bottom of your page, list the two limitations that are explained on the video.

What countries are in the demographic transition model?

2) Card sort task:

a) Stick the Demographic Transition Model into your book, on the top of the page.
b) Cut out and arrange the cards in the correct order on your chart
c) Only stick them in when you are 100% convinced that you are right!

What countries are in the demographic transition model?
What countries are in the demographic transition model?
What countries are in the demographic transition model?
Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model by rgamesby
Think about it The Demographic Transition Model graphs Birth rate, Death rate and Natural Increase.  The word demographic simply means population, and transition relates to change.  Therefore this model proposes what should happen to a population over time and how it should CHANGE.

If birth rate is greater than death rate the population will increase. If the death rate is greater than birth rate the population will naturally decrease. The greater the difference the greater the rate of Natural Increase. The rate of Natural Increase is much higher in developing countries of the world and many countries in MEDCs are actually experiencing population decline.

The demographic transition model is set out in 5 stages and was based on the United Kingdom.  These can be seen below:

What countries are in the demographic transition model?

1) Try this exercise on interpreting the Demographic Transition Model 2) Population match up exercise

3) Using the text opposite attempt to complete the table on this word document

4) Could there be a stage 5? What could happen in stage 5? What consequences would that have for governments?

5) Try a BBC bytesize test bite

Major patterns and reasons for those patterns are summarised in the table below.  

Stage 1 - High fluctuating

Stage 2 population increase

Stage 3 Population increase

Stage 4 low fluctuating

Stage 5 - ageing & decline

UK in the past

Pre 1780

1780 to 1880

1880 to 1940

Post 1940

2000+

Present examples

Ethiopia

Bolivia, India

China

Canada, USA

Russia, Germany, Japan

Birth rates

High due to;

1. Cultural or religious beliefs encouraging large families

2. Lack of contraception

3. Parents have lots of children to compensate for high Infant mortality

4. Children work on the land

As stage 1

Start to decline due to;

a) Increased access to contraception

b) Infant mortality falls so there is less need to have a large family

c) Industrialisation and mechanisation means less workers are required.

d) Wealth increase and people are more materialistic, so want less children.

Stay low because of reasons in stage 3.

Are very low and the countries suffer from low fertility. Materialism and the desire for family size massively affect birth rates 

Death rates

High due to disease, Famine, poor diet and hygiene, little medical science.

Start to decrease due to improvements in medical care, sanitation and water supply, supply and cleanliness of food.

Continue to fall. developments such as underground sewers, medical developments such as penicillin, surgery such as heart bypasses and inoculations help.

Stay low.

Rise slightly as ageing people reach the end of their lives

Click here for full screen version

Click here for full screen version 

 Watch a video

Where are most countries in the demographic transition model?

The majority of the world is either in Stage 2 or 3, both having higher crude birth rates than crude death rates; therefore, the world's population is over 7 billion today. In summary, the demographic transition model is a model that helps human geographers understand and predict the demographics of individual nations.

What countries are in Stage 3 of the demographic transition model?

Countries that are currently in stage three are Mexico, India, Colombia, and South Africa. The population pyramids of these countries are wider in the middle ages and have more of a pear shape.

What countries are in stage 2 of the demographic transition model?

Example: poorest developing countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bolivia, sub-Saharan countries such as Niger, Uganda and middle east countries like Yemen, Palestinian Territories are still in stage 2. Birth rate falls due to the availability of contraception.

What countries are in stage 4 of the demographic transition model?

Examples of countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.